It seems that one dire prediction after another about the bad effects of AGW are being debunked, not by skeptics, but by Mother Nature. The Warmists scramble to explain away each failure of their models to predict what has actually happened.
The rapid rise in sea level that is supposed to inundate coastal cities by 2100 (or sooner) hasn't been happening. The rate of increasing sea levels hasn't changed a bit, meaning our coastal cities are safe for at least another thousand years.
The more numerous bigger, more powerful hurricanes that were supposed to devastate our coasts haven't been happening. In fact we've reached a stretch where the number and strength of damaging hurricanes has decreased. (Sandy was a weak Category 1/strong tropical storm when it hit the northeastern US last year.)
The unprecedented droughts that were supposed to wipe out farming haven't happened, though there have been droughts. However none of them were outside what we've seen over the past couple of hundred years. (I haven't seen a return of the Dust Bowl. Have you?)
Forest and brush fires were supposed to become more common, more widespread, and more damaging. But that isn't what has happened, media reports about the annual battle against such fires to the contrary. The actual number of such fires has been decreasing. That most of them still occur in arid areas isn't surprising. It's to be expected. But the ecosystems survive because they require such fires in order to regenerate. That human beings live in those areas makes them vulnerable to those fires.
Another dire prediction has been that the number of tornadoes will increase, but in general that hasn't been the case. The number of tornadoes seen over the past 12 months has fallen to the lowest level in 60 years. If this trend continues I thing we can put a stake through the heart of this prediction.
I must state that I am not denying that climate change is happening. I doubt anyone can really deny that for the simple reason is that it changes all the time. It's never static. What I am questioning is the many predictions made about how bad things would get because of warmer temps. How did the “We're all gonna DIE!” CAGW folks make those predictions? Did they make their predictions by assuming only one factor in our semi-chaotic atmospheric system would change and project the consequences from there? Or did they pull out a climate dart board and throw darts to generate their predictions?
One last dig: I still see a lot of the AGW faithful sticking by their guns that things are getting warmer even though global temperatures haven't risen for the past 15 years. The actual temperatures have flattened, fallen out of the 'envelope' of the myriad climate models. Many expect the temperatures to start falling, particularly in light of the very weak sunspot Cycle 24. (The sun's 11-year cycle has some effect on climate, both here on Earth and the other planets in the solar system. Weak sunspot cycles, called minimums, seem to coincide with cooler temperatures. Some solar physicists believe we're entering a lengthy period of lower sunspot activity which mighty mean cooler temps here for a few decades.)
How many other dire predictions will fall by the wayside over the coming years?
