As more time passes it appears Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has gone sideways. The Russian military was seen a juggernaut, a powerful force to be reckoned with. But time has shown that while it was once a powerful military, it is a shadow of its former self.
In the beginning of Putin’s “Special Military Operation”, many, including some here in the West, figured Ukraine was doomed once Russia invaded. Some have reported the Russians expected to sweep into Kyiv and seize the government in three days. Yet over 7 months later Russia is on the ropes as Ukraine’s counteroffensive has been gaining ground in Russian-held Ukrainian territory as Russian lines have apparently crumbled.
The Russian air force never achieved air superiority, something it should have been able to do. But Ukraine wasn’t the pushover everyone expected. Russia has lost thousands of troops, thousands of tracks – tanks, APCs, and IFVs – countless trucks, and tons of ammunition either destroyed or abandoned. Bridges have been demolished, supply depots destroyed, and rail lines sabotaged. Manpower shortages have hurt Russia’s ability to stave off Ukraine’s counteroffensive, hence Putin’s call-up of reserves.
It doesn’t help Russia that their reserves are not like those we’re familiar with here. Russia doesn’t have an equivalent of the Reserves or National Guard we have in the US. Their reserves are either former conscripts, who weren’t well trained to begin with, or some former professional now in their 40’s and 50’s who mustered out 20 years ago and whose training is out of date and whose physical conditioning is likewise.
Things aren’t going well for Putin’s war against Ukraine, with their latest setback being the heavy damage to the only bridge between Crimea and the Russian mainland. That bridge and the adjacent railroad bridge are closed, with more than one section of the roadway now in the Black Sea.
The past couple of weeks have not been going Putin's way.
