I have no doubt you’ve been paying some level of attention to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. I have, though not to the level of some folks.
There are a number of things I’ve heard about the battle between Russian and Ukrainian forces, with little of it showing the Russian military in a good light, specifically when it comes to their war-fighting capabilities.
It appears Putin and the military planners expected a quick and decisive victory in the manner of the US military’s “Shock and Awe” victory over Iraq’s forces during Desert Storm and Operation Iraqi Freedom. However, their “Shock and Awe” plans turned into “WTF?!!” when their expected cake walk into Kyiv turned into pitched battles against Ukrainian forces and experiencing destruction of tanks, armored vehicles, trucks, helicopters, and attack aircraft with progress towards Kyiv slowed to crawl, with some columns halted due to lack of fuel, ammunition, and fuel.
The Russians didn’t have their logistics in order for lengthy operation, basing it on the “cake walk” scenario. (That’s a mistake US forces didn’t make with any of their operations, be it in Iraq or Afghanistan.) So when things bogged down and the various Russian units didn’t meet their objectives there wasn’t enough materiel – gas, food, and bullets – in the supply chain to resupply them adequately. Trucks, tanks, and tracks were either parked or abandoned when they ran out of fuel and the troops ran out of food and were low on ammunition. Logistics can win or lose battles or wars. As anyone familiar with military operations knows, “Amateurs talk about strategy. Professionals talk about logistics.”
During World War II, the one thing that won the war, particularly in the European Theater, was logistics. The ability to get what was needed where it was need when it was needed in the quantities needed is what defeated Nazi Germany and Fascist Italy. The Allies could build ships, planes, trucks, and tanks faster than the enemy could destroy them. They could make bombs, bullets, and artillery shells and get them where they were needed in very large quantities. The could get food, fuel, and ammo where it was needed when it was needed. Germany and Italy couldn’t even come close to doing that, particularly after Normandy.
The Russians used to understand that lesson, but have forgotten it.
It also appears the Russians didn’t use their best trained troops for this operation, with a majority of the troops being conscripts and poorly trained ones at that. Highly trained Spetsnaz and paratroop units were going to be used to seize the Ukrainian government in Kyiv and the ground troops were supposed to support them. But between the paratroops being unable to reach their drop zones and the ground troops being bogged down and failing to reach their objectives due to the Ukrainian forces opposing them, the cake walk scenario died a much deserved death.
Because of this, the Russians now have to slog it out, reverting to old Soviet tactics of bludgeoning the Ukrainians with artillery, more artillery, and even more artillery, hitting all targets, military and civilian. (It seems artillery shells and rockets are about the only thing the Russian troops have in large enough numbers...for the moment. That can change at any time.) They will be stuck with ground action as the only way to ‘win’, and even then it will cost Russia dearly since the military will be destroying the very things Putin wants to control. Putin could end up taking control of a wasteland.
There’s also the question of just how long the Russian military will be able to sustain operations considering they do have a limited amount of funds to finance the war. The sanctions are hitting Russia harder than many, including the Russians, have expected. How much longer can Russia continue this war if it ends up destroying their economy in the process?
Putin is also making the mistake of trying to intimidate NATO, setting his sights on the Baltics (Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia) once he’s taken Ukraine, and then perhaps Poland, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia. It wouldn’t surprise me if he wanted Hungary as well. That he’s threatened Sweden and Finland doesn’t bode well for him either.
If he needs more troops, where will he get them? He can’t really strip them from Russia’s southern border with the ‘Stans’ and China. Despite Putin and Xi being ‘buddies’, Xi wouldn’t hesitate to exploit any of Russia’s weaknesses if it was to his advantage. Some of Russia’s putative allies have already declined to provide troops to help Russia take Ukraine since they see Russia’s imperial ambitions as Putin’s problem, not theirs. (Kazakhstan didn’t just say ‘no’, they said ‘Hell, no’.)
If Sweden and Finland decide to join NATO, what will Putin do? What can he do? He has threatened economic and military consequences, but just how much can he realistically do to them?
I find it interesting that an increasing number of Russians who oppose Putin are leaving Russia. It appears a lot of them are crossing into Finland on their way elsewhere because they don’t want to end up in a gulag...or an anonymous grave.
This whole Ukrainian debacle seems so 20th century. Perhaps the ghost of Stalin is looking over Putin’s shoulder. It certainly seems that way to me...and many others.
