What The Covid-19 Numbers Are Actually Telling Us

The Covid-19 “crisis” is a gift that keeps on giving…to the federal, state, and local governments.

Here in New Hampshire we have been seeing a rapid increase in the number of positive cases, with an average of 435 new cases a day over the past few days. That is far above what was seen during the first wave back in April and May, which saw about 65 new cases a day back then.

One would think the numbers would imply that we would also see a big spike in the number of deaths every day considering the number of new cases, but you would be wrong.

Instead we are seeing approximately 40% the number of daily deaths from the peak of the first wave even though we’re seeing 667% the number of daily new cases. What conclusions can we draw from those two different sets of numbers?

Here’s my take on them:

1.The number of new positive cases is inflated, either through false positive test results caused by over-amplification of samples performed during the PCR tests, a huge increase in the number of tests being run compared to this past Spring, or some combination of both.

2.The number of new deaths is low because of better and more aggressive treatments, better isolation of vulnerable populations, or the inevitable attenuation of the virus meaning it isn’t nearly as strong or as deadly as what was seen this past spring, or some combination of all three.

3.Lockdowns did little to prevent the spread of Covid-19.

4.Most masks provide little actual protection and are more of a psychological crutch to give people a false sense of security. If the masks being used by people are not N95 masks and are not properly fitted, they are not effective. Even then, they should be used by the infected to protect the uninfected, not the other way around.

However, looking at these numbers, the increasingly tightening restrictions being placed upon New Hampshire residents make no sense on the face of it. Yes, we’re seeing an increase in positive cases, but are they a real increase or an artifact caused by the conditions listed in Point #1 above? (This likely applies to people in other states, but I can only speak to the case here in New Hampshire.)

We aren’t watching people drop dead in the streets. We don’t have anyone on a horse-drawn cart riding down the street calling “Bring out your dead! Bring out your dead!” There are no mass graves or large funeral pyres to dispose of the mounds of dead. Yet our government leaders are reacting to this as if it were a repeat of Black Plague in the 1340’s or the Spanish Flu in 1918 even as we ignore the lessons of those deadly diseases.

Isolating the vulnerable should have been and should remain the top priority, not locking everyone else away, shutting down the economy, forcing businesses to close (in too many cases, permanently), and forcing people out of their jobs. The Powers That Be got it wrong and are continuing to get it wrong.