The Only True Solution For Sustainable Development
The subject of the Conference for Sustainable Development keeps coming up here and there in the media even though it has been over for a couple of weeks now. In this case, a guest editorial in the Manchester, New Hampshire Union Leader makes a number of excellent points about sustainable development and how the conference got it all wrong. Rather than focusing on the true causes for the increasing demand upon resources, the conference attendees focused only on the use of those resources and how they should be redistributed.
Philip M. Morse, in his editorial, states, ”The theme of the United Nations conference in South Africa has been human sustainability. But the fact that by the year 2050 there will be three billion more people in the world is ignored. Ten billion people in the world is a given, a premise to be factored into the question of sustainability. But the world and its resources are finite and the end of some critical resources is already in sight.”
One of those resources is water. Though wars haven’t been fought over water in the modern era, that time is soon coming. In the United States alone there are states trying to sustain large populations in areas that are essentially deserts. That water has to come from somewhere, usually hundreds of miles away. Los Angeles is a perfect example of this.
LA wants more of the water that comes from the Colorado River to meet the needs of its people. However, that water will have to be taken away from the farmers in the San Fernando Valley to meet those increasing needs. That can lead to less food production, higher food prices, and even more growth of the population in LA. Where will they get the water for the even larger population?
Would you believe Alaska?
There was at one time a proposal to run an undersea pipeline from Alaska to California to pipe fresh water from Alaskan rivers to dry southern California. How crazy is that? It would probably be cheaper to pay people to move to Alaska from California than to build such a pipeline.
“Resources will determine what is a sustainable population size and at what standard of living. There is a tradeoff between population size and standard of living. The higher the average standard of living, the less the number of people that the environment with its resources can sustain.”
The West has the highest standard of living in the world. It also has a low birth rate, which is still falling. Population growth has slowed, and if the trend continues, will soon reach zero population growth (ZPG). One western nation, Sweden, has already achieved ZPG, if not fallen below that point, much to the concern of the Swedish government. The only non-western nation that I am aware of that is working hard to reach ZPG or NPG (negative population growth) is the People’s Republic of China. Through draconian birth control laws, couples are allowed only one child. There are exceptions made, usually because of the death of a child, but not often. Even they realize that sustaining over 1.2 billion people is a no-win situation. They don’t have the resources they need to sustain a population that size.
“Since World War II, when the world population was about two billion, agricultural productivity increased fivefold in what was called The Green Revolution. It could and should have ended poverty and starvation worldwide, but all we got out of it was more population growth because we failed to reduce the birth rate. At two billion, poverty and starvation might have been ended universally, but at over 10 billion, starvation will likely be the rule for all but the most privileged.”
I’ve seen visions of such a world in the movies. Does Soylent Green ring a bell? Based on the novel “Make Room! Make Room!” by Harry Harrison, it takes place on an overpopulated Earth, one running out of resources. The last bastions of food production, the oceans, are dying. Only the extremely wealthy can afford ‘real’ food. Everyone else is reduced to eating colored wafers of processed plankton made by the Soylent Corporation. But even these will soon run out. And then, miracle of miracles, a new food wafer is made available, Soylent Green. Little do the people eating them realize is that “Soylent Green is people!” Will the ultimate in resource recycling come to be?
“The symptoms of overpopulation are all around us and they are all the issues the environmentalists claim as their own to grow their membership lists while ignoring the basic problem.”
“Environmentalists treat the symptoms, economists behave as if there are no limits, and religious fanatics cannot see anything but good coming from more of God’s creation. All are in denial, but the law of diminishing returns tells us that an additional unit of something does not have quite the same additional value that an earlier unit did. To a person in the desert, a cup of water is a lifesaver. And the second is just as good. The third, if it can be saved, is valuable because it will be needed in an hour. Or if it can’t be saved and carried, it might be useful to rinse off with. But eventually additional cups of water are worthless. If there are already too many people in the world, how can there be any value to adding even more?”
Two nations, India and the People’s Republic of China, have about one third of the Earth’s population. They occupy probably less than 10 percent of the usable land on this world (I’m not counting Antarctica). It’s crowded in both nations. Now picture that kind of crowding everywhere. How would it be possible to sustain such a population with the resources presently available? It wouldn’t. What would the environment be like with 10 billion people on Earth? Probably pretty bad. So what’s the answer? Or rather, what are the answers?
There are two of things that would make sustainable development possible: Population reduction by one half to two thirds of what we presently have, or new resources. Population reduction is easy. Producing new resources is not. Notice I said producing, not finding.
Producing more resources is a way to extend the sustainable development without having to use drastic measures to reduce the population. The problem is that we don’t have a real long-term spaceflight capability. That’s what we need in order to go get these new resources because they are all out in space. Water from Europa; aluminum from the moon; iron, iridium, other minerals, and carbonaceous compounds from the asteroids. It’s all out there for the taking. We just can’t get there very easily or cheaply. That pretty much leaves population reduction, for now.
Population reduction can be handled a number of ways, with the least disruptive being birth control. The days of large families are over. One or two children per family would be it, no more than that. One would be preferable over two. Maybe tax disincentives if there is more than one child? Of course, it would be the slowest method of population reduction.
War is usually a quick way to reduce populations, but it can be very expensive and isn’t one of the more popular methods (except for a few extremists). It probably would get good TV ratings, though.
Out-migration is another way, but as we really don’t have any kind of large spaceflight capability as of yet, moving large numbers of people to other worlds within the solar system isn’t practical.
Plague is always an effective way of reducing populations, but then you have the same problem as war: getting rid of the corpses. Of course, plague can happen all by itself with little encouragement from us humans. The problem will be stopping it before it wipes everybody out. What if someone developed a virus that sterilized a large percentage of the human population, might that not be a non-lethal plague that could do the job in less than seventy years? Phillip Jose Farmer wrote a short story about just such a thing in “Seventy Years of Decpop.”
So what's it going to be? True sustainable development by reducing the world's population to an easily sustainable level? Crash development of space technology to go get more resources or move people off Earth, or both? Or something like the nightmare of Soylent Green?