4/22/2018

Thoughts On A Sunday

It appears spring has arrived (at least temporarily as I still don't trust Mother Nature), with temps in the 50's here in central New Hampshire. There is no freezing rain, snow, or sleet in the forecast over the next few days, so it's looking promising. A good portion of the ice covering Lake Winnipesaukee has melted or broken up, though a considerable amount of ice can still be seen along the northern side of the lake.

Who knows, I might still be able to launch The Boat during the first weekend of May after all...but I'm not holding my breath.

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Reading and hearing reports on TV about the continuing demonstrations and walkouts by high school students demanding action in regards to gun violence, I see the focus is still on the wrong aspect of the issue. They are focusing on guns, not violence. The 'new' laws and regulations they propose aren't new at all. They already exist, but are being poorly enforced. A complete ban on guns would be unconstitutional (see Heller vs District of Columbia). Both school and law enforcement officials have ignored warnings about people who everyone knows will at some point go on a rampage, whether they use guns, knives, or explosives.

In all of this, people have been focusing on the instruments of violence, not the violence itself. Until they do, the problem will not be solved. Disarming law abiding citizens because of the actions of an infinitesimal portion of the population won't solve the problem. If anything, it will make it worse because then no one will be able to defend themselves against the criminal or the violent mentally ill who will ignore the law.

Treat the cause, not the symptoms. It's no different than treating any disease (violence is a disease). If you only treat the symptoms, the disease itself will continue to do its damage.

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I have long had a problem with the claim that renewable energy sources can meet all of our electrical needs. First, as an engineer I understand the differences between the performance claims and the actual performance of a system or systems, particularly for something like solar or wind energy. (I deal with electronics, optics, and laser systems on a day to day basis, so I am naturally skeptical when claims about some miraculous new system are announced.)

I think the problem with a vast majority of people who are not in any way involved with the power industry is that they have absolutely no understanding of how our electrical grid and generation systems work, how they are managed, and the delicate balance that must be maintained 24/7/365 in order to keep the system from failing. They also have little appreciation for just how much power it takes to run modern technological civilization, covering everything from the food production systems to telecommunications to air transport systems, and so on.

It is this lack of understanding that those who push the meme that “renewables can meet 100% of our electrical needs” exploit. They push the positives – free energy - while totally ignoring the negatives such as the scope of what would be needed to replace all of our conventional means of generating electricity and the actual costs of doing so. Those types of systems take up incredible amounts of land to even come close to generating the power that a coal, natural gas, or nuclear plant presently generate. What effect will all of those arrays of solar panels and wind turbines have on the local environment? How much wildlife habitat will be destroyed in order to put in acres and acres of solar panels? How much avian wildlife will be killed by wind turbine blades and how much of a negative effect will be created by the known effects of infrasound also generated by wind turbines? It seems no one really wants to discuss the environmental downsides, some of which are well known and well documented.

They also purposely ignore just how difficult it will become to keep the aforementioned 'delicate balance' if we switch to renewables so our electrical grid doesn't crash. The concerns are pushed aside with claims that it's only a problem for the skeptics and that somehow when it comes to actually making the switch that the problems will magically fix themselves or worse, won't ever be a problem. The issue is the stability of those renewable sources which are inherently unstable as well as their lack of what is called dispatchability. (This refers to the ability of a grid operator to 'dispatch' generating capacity as the electrical demand rises and falls. Renewables are not considered dispatchable because they cannot be throttled up and down like natural gas plants, and to a limited extent, coal or nuclear plants. The amount of electricity they generate changes with the weather conditions and from minute to minute. Solar is limited to daylight hours and wind turbines to when the wind is blowing. Of the two, only wind might be able to generate power all through a 24 hour period, and even then only every now and then. Renewables aren't consistent. They aren't stable. They aren't capable of providing the power we need that other power technologies can handle readily.

100 percent renewable energy is a pipe-dream.

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I have to wonder what will happen when Special Counsel Mueller's investigation concludes there was no collusion by the Trump team with Russia? I can think of a couple of different scenarios, neither of which is pretty.

One possible scenarios: After the tearing of hair and rending of clothing by Democrats who were so sure that there would be something that could be used to impeach Trump, there would be calls for a follow on investigation of the Mueller investigation to see if there was collusion with the Russians by Robert Mueller.

Another: Most of the people in the US will see it for what it was – a nothingburger – and will hand the Democrats a sound shellacking in the midterm elections for wasting their time and our tax dollars on what was nothing more than a combination witch hunt/fishing expedition.

One definite scenario: An MSM meltdown and violent Antifa demonstrations that will further damage an already heavily damaged Democrat party.

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I think you will have noticed that I have not included any links in my usual TOAS post today. This was intentional, a throwback to some of my earlier days where I provided my opinions on matters that caught my interest or bothered me in some way. Just linking to others' posts and throwing my 3¢ worth in was a lazy way out. It didn't really take a lot of thought and I realized that I wasn't always expressing my full thoughts on a matter.

Looking at Disqus comments I've made on other blog posts or articles made me realize I was doing a far better job there than here, something that proved to me that I've fallen down on the job. (No. I am not going to reveal my Disqus name. That's for me to know and for you to figure out for yourselves.)

I figured I'd try this little experiment and go back to some of my blogging roots if for no other reason as to shake me loose from this lazy habit I've fallen into.

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And that's the news from Lake Winnipesaukee, where the ice is finally melting away, the boat will soon be out of storage, and where we're not hearing the furnace running every 5 minutes.